Today I skimmed the MAID trading topic on the official forum and surprisingly (or not) there are no new posts.
Just last week many were saying they were looking forward to lower prices so that they can load up. Example from yesterday:
I have some buy orders in the green. Hope they will be picked up Seems good for buyers today. Good volume.
I expected the same crowd would be celebrating the huge crash which allowed them to put their life savings into MAID at a great price of 8500 satoshis or so (yesterday) or an even greater price of 7300 satoshis today. But for some reason they’re quiet. No new comment in the past 14 hours!
After days of persistent losses, today MAID has been hit hard. Pessimism rules and bids over 7000 satoshis have almost completely melted away.
Who is selling?
I would guess that MaidSafe Inc. has been the largest seller, getting rid of that batch of 900K MAID they transferred to Poloniex last month. They’re joined by short sellers and perhaps panicked “investors” who bought when BTC was much less valuable and MAID twice as expensive.
Now it may be a good time to cover short positions and see whether tomorrow’s Developer Update will create a short-lived bounce which should be shorted because there’s nothing it can change – Safecoin isn’t feasible and MAID is ultimately going to be completely worthless. It’s only a question of time – before conversion to Safecoin or after.
Trading Death Match: MaidSafe fanboys vs. MaidSafe Inc.
Between May 31 and now MAID has lost 40% of value (measured in BTC) and everyone could have known something like this would happen. But many have kept buying and have suffered big losses. Those who bought near the peak are completely screwed, having lost 70-75% of their investment (in BTC)!
In the next week I expect the price to fluctuate in the range of 6600 to 8000, break the 6600 buy wall and head down to the range of 4500 to 5500.
It is clear that MaidSafe’s chance to raise significant funds from the 20 million MAID is close to zero. If they continue selling, perhaps they can raise few hundred BTC at the cost of community rage.
We’ll see if they will dare to sell enough MAID to push their long term holders under water. If they do and MAID drops to below the level of 4500 satoshis, it’s going to be fun to read reactions from their community fanatics and moderators! If MaidSafe Inc will have sold some MAID by end of June that should allow them to survive for couple months so I think they’ll pause and try to get some good news out before they dump another batch (Must Pump to Dump).
Interestingly, MaidSafe has not announced any sales of counterfeit MAID yet. I wonder if they’ll do that at the end of June or not at all. They said they’ll be transparent, but didn’t explain what they meant by that.