MAID trading observations

I appears I underestimated the incompetence of the MaidSafe community: since the June 1st announcement MAID has dropped much less than I expected.

Still, MAID bagholders recorded a solid loss. Price action so far in June:

  • High (June 1): 0.00012173
  • Current price: 0.00009499
  • Performance: -28%

As you can see below, this month the price has moved up in only two 24 hour periods. The rest has been bad (or good, if you’d like to see an end to this waste of resources).

maid-jun-01-11

This week (June 8 & 9 in the US) MaidSafe got some publicity at the Decentralized Web gathering and that may have helped on June 9. Even if it did, the impact was weak.

Groupthink of independent experts: buy!

Before I state my case let us consider a popular (12 likes, including by Dr. Irvine) comment by a leading MaidSafe Community thinker and forum moderator, polpolrene:

19 million MAID is 4,19% of the total available coins. If they bring these to market spread over 6 months that 0,7% “new coins” per month, still way below the monthly 2,5% ETH that get mined and brought in existence, and only for 6 months. And I even believe they will take more time than 6 months.

So I have not a single worry about any pressure at all. The numbers that say “pressure” don’t add up :wink:.

expert-trading-advice-polpolrene.gif

Piece of cake, right? Wrong.

Problem: scarcity of bids

At the moment the total amount of all MAID bids at or above 0.000066 BTC is 214 BTC.

MaidSafe has stated that by selling “carefully”, they believe they’ll be able to raise $1-2 million. 200 BTC is $100,000. See where the problem is?

Problem: must pump to dump

MaidSafe’s “plan” to raise all that fiat equivalent by selling counterfeit MAID can’t work unless they keep coming up with very positive news and attract 10 times more buyers (at a high price).

Can that be done in an ethical manner? While you’re thinking about that let’s conclude this part by stating the obvious: they must pump to be able to dump.

Rest of June

Going forward in June I expect 1-2 attempts to hype things up (so that they can offload some of that MAID) and the price may be able to recover somewhat, but very briefly and definitively not above the June 1st high.

They need to be able to successfully repeat the same trick at least 10 times. Are there enough fools out there?

I don’t think so. Everyone knows what they have to do in order to survive (dump). MaidSafe may be able to come up with some semi-exciting developments and successfully dump 1 million MAID, but there’s no way in hell they can do that 10 times in row.

As an aside: MaidSafe had a poor showing at the Decentralized Web Summit while some competing projects showed a higher degree of maturity and received an enthusiastic response. If after 2 years of development and $6 million in expenses you can’t come up with something that makes a decentralized Web audience enthusiastic, you have a problem that even an injection of $2 million can’t fix.

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